According to crypto analyst Marcel Pechman, derivatives data shows a clear path for Bitcoin to $29,000. However, inflation and unemployment data will continue to be crucial for determining BTC price rallies. The analyst is trying to determine the route of the leading crypto in this direction.
“Bitcoin will reach $29,000 in early October!”
As you follow on Kriptokoin.com, Bitcoin continues to fight at the $24,000 resistance. However, the price was denied there on August 10. However, the rejection was not enough to push the price out of the 52-day ascending channel. The channel has a support of $22,500. This bullish formation indicates that the BTC price will finally reach the $29,000 level in early October.
Bitcoin 12 hour price chart / Source: TradingViewBitcoin derivatives data shows a lack of interest from leveraged longs (bulls). But at the same time, it’s not pricing in a higher probability of a surprise accident. Curiously, the most recent Bitcoin drop on August 9 was accompanied by a negative performance from stocks listed in the US.
On August 8, chip and video graphics card maker Nvidia Corp (NVDA) announced that Q2 sales will show a 19% decrease from the previous quarter. In addition, the US Senate passed a bill on August 6 that could negatively impact company earnings. The high correlation of traditional assets with cryptocurrencies remains a major concern for some investors. Investors should not get ahead of themselves, even as inflationary pressures ease, as the Fed monitors employment data very closely.
It should be the norm for investors to cut their risk positions until it becomes clear that the Fed is closer to easing. This is exactly why crypto traders follow macroeconomic figures so closely. Currently, Bitcoin lacks the strength to break the $24,000 resistance. But traders need to study derivatives to gauge the sentiment of professional traders.
BTC derivatives metrics changed from neutral to bearish
Bitcoin futures annual premium measures the difference between long-term futures contracts and current spot market levels. The indicator should run between 4% and 8% to compensate for traders ‘locking up’ money until the contract expires. Therefore, levels below 2% indicate extreme decline. However, numbers above 10% indicate over-optimism.
Annual premium of Bitcoin 3-month futures / Source: LaevitasThe chart above shows that this metric fell below 4% on June 1. This reflects the lack of demand by traders for leveraged long (bullish) positions. However, BTC fell 51% year over year. Given this situation, the current 2% of data is not particularly alarming.
To exclude externalities specific to the futures instrument, traders should also analyze the Bitcoin options markets. A 25% delta skew is an important sign of this when arbitrage tables and market makers overcharge for up or down protection. If these traders fear a Bitcoin price crash, the skewness indicator will rise above 12%. On the other hand, generalized excitement reflects a negative 12% skewness.
Bitcoin 30-day options 25% delta skew / Source: LaevitasThe data show that the skewness indicator has ranged between 3% and 5% since August 5, which is considered a neutral space. Options traders no longer overcharge for downside protection. This means that they may lack excitement. But at least they have abandoned the feeling of ‘fear’ seen in the last few months.
Given Bitcoin’s current ascending channel pattern, Bitcoin investors probably shouldn’t worry too much about the lack of buying demand, according to futures market data. There is, of course, a healthy skepticism reflected in derivative metrics. But the path to a $29,000 BTC price remains clear as long as inflation and employment statistics are under control.
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