We are getting close to crossing the threshold for the global temperature average, which is 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. In fact, according to the latest estimates of the World Meteorological Organization, the probability of exceeding this threshold in at least one of the next five years is 66 percent. This draws attention as another alarm showing the seriousness of the climate crisis.
The Global Annual and Decade Climate Update paints a picture of the projections for the near future, and we cannot say that the situation is encouraging. The hottest year in recorded history was 2016, and the years between 2023 and 2027 have a 98 percent chance of breaking that record. The probability that the five-year average for 2023-2027 will be higher than the last five years has the same probability.
Met Office expert scientist Dr. “Global average temperatures are predicted to continue to rise, driving us further away from the climate we are used to,” said Leon Hermanson in a statement.
While the two-thirds chance of global near-surface temperature rising 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in at least one year between 2023 and 2027 is reported, the five-year average is not expected to exceed this limit. In addition, it is emphasized in the study that a new El Niño event is expected between December 2023 and February 2024.
WMO Secretary General Prof. Petteri Taalas said: “This report does not mean that we will permanently exceed the 1.5°C level stated in the Paris Agreement, which refers to long-term warming over many years. However, the WMO is alarming that we will exceed 1.5°C temporarily and with increasing frequency,” he says. will push. This will have far-reaching implications for health, food security, water management and the environment. We need to be prepared.”
Temperature changes in the Arctic are three times higher than temperature changes elsewhere on the planet, and precipitation is decreasing in Indonesia, the Amazon and Central America. In northern Europe, Alaska and Siberia, the probability of above-average precipitation will increase.
Paris Agreement and the 1.5 °C limit
The Paris Agreement enabled countries to agree to “continue efforts” to limit global temperature rises to 1.5°C. If the world experiences a temperature anomaly above 1.5°C for ten or twenty years, it will have devastating effects, with effects such as longer and stronger heat waves, more forest fires, more intense storms and more flooding. .
To avoid this catastrophe, the UN has called for greenhouse gas emissions to reach their peak before 2025 and fall by 43 percent by 2030. Countries are currently not complying with the agreement with measures that do not go as far as they should in reducing emissions.
Although the situation remains vitally serious, hope is not completely lost. Every amount of temperature rise we can prevent is of paramount importance. Even the prolonged crossing of the 1.5 °C threshold does not mean a definitive end. But with an increasing amount of heat, the amount of effort we have to make as a whole humanity also increases exponentially. Efforts to limit our impact as much as possible will translate directly into lives saved across the planet.
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