The leading crypto Bitcoin managed to maintain its position despite the Fed’s increase in interest rates by 25 bps. However, difficult days and months are not behind. A crypto analyst says that in the light of historical data, difficult days await Bitcon. On the other hand, the co-founder of analytics platform CryptoQuant argues that BTC’s bull cycle continues.
Historical data shows that ‘bad months’ are waiting for Bitcoin!
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a short-term recovery. However, BTC maintains a sideways trading pattern as it tries to make significant gains above $29,000. The market expects a potential price increase beyond the $30,000 level. However, historical data shows that Bitcoin will face a bumpy ride in the coming months.
In particular, the crypto analyst alias Fiery Trading says Bitcoin will have tough months in the third quarter. The analyst states that the asset is at risk of decline in the pre-halving phase. According to the analyst, BTC has historically experienced a pullback in this time frame. In this context, Bitcoin recorded a significant price drop, exceeding 20% at one point in the three years before the halving. Fiery Trading’s analysis shows that a potential drop of 20% from the current monthly opening would take BTC to $25,000. Accordingly, the analyst makes the following statement:
As the chart shows, Bitcoin’s performance has always been bad in the third quarter. During the three years before the halving, the price dropped over 20% at one point. As of today, BTC is down just over 4%. A 20% drop from the monthly opening would set Bitcoin back to $25,000.
Bitcoin price analysis chart. Source: Trading ViewBitcoin is still in the bull cycle, but there is a problem!
Currently, Bitcoin is hovering around 10% below its 2023 peak. Ki Young Ju, co-founder and CEO of analytics platform CryptoQuant, analyzed BTC. The expert says that Bitcoin is still in a bull cycle due to the low selling pressure witnessed as a result of which most of the BTCs bought or issued more than six months ago remained stable. In this context, Ki Young Ju shares the following comment:
Bitcoin is still in a bull cycle. About 71% of realized capital consists of dormant BTC (longer than 6 months). This indicates low selling pressure from long-term holders at the moment.
Source: Ki Young Ju/ XHowever, CryptoQuant CEO states that a price increase for the leading digital asset is not guaranteed. Ki Young Ju said, “Lower selling pressure does not guarantee a price increase. But BTC is less likely to be at least at its cyclical peak. Stablecoins for BTC are a good thing. “People buy BTC using stablecoins,” he says. He also notes that the crypto market is likely to remain calm until the stablecoin supply increases. Therefore, “the market is boring until more stablecoins are injected for buyer-side liquidity,” he says.
Source: Ki Young Ju/ XBTC holds its position despite Fed rate hike
Bitcoin was not seriously affected by the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. He even managed to make a small profit. However, it still fell significantly behind the $31,800 peak it reached in July. Interestingly, BTC seems relatively unaffected by macroeconomic events. However, the past year has witnessed more significant price fluctuations due to such events.
Interest in Bitcoin’s future performance continues. Google Bard, an artificial intelligence (AI) platform, highlighted factors that could potentially affect Bitcoin’s price following the 2024 halving event. As you follow on Kriptokoin.com, halving is considered a bullish factor in the market. Meanwhile, financial experts see Bitcoin regaining the $40,000 levels likely.
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